2 Truths and 2 Lies | Perch Views #30
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This is the previous Perch Views article, from below the paywall line in From 6-7, Back To 3, But Down To A Different 1 | Perch Views #29. Subscribers, please jump to the paywall line for the latest.
From 6-7, Back To 3, But Down To A Different 1
A Different One
Another 3 | Perch Observations #26 spilled plenty of digital ink about the S&P (SPY), Dow (DIA), and small caps (IWM) breaking out to new all-time highs while the Nasdaq (QQQ) chopped in a range. The post closed with the following:
Does the Nasdaq (QQQ) catch up with the rest of the world, or does the rest of the world catch down to the Nasdaq?
In Wait A Minute | Perch Views #27 the following was posited:
QQQ still remains the last major index that has not broken out yet.
New tariff headline news is moving the market, and with the first market holiday of 2026 behind us, participants will have to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer glimpse of what may come next.
And from I Got Six-Seven Problems But The Equal Weights Ain't One | Perch Views #28:
As of now, it seems 2026 is all about whether the equal-weight indices will continue to outperform versus market cap indices. If that’s true, the probabilities of distribution should also be updated:
Do the market cap indices (SPY, QQQ) catch up with the equal weights (RSP, QQQE) and the rest of the world?
My question: Will participants still complain about “concentration” even though the other 493 are the reason for market strength?
Fast forward and one chart does not look like the others:
Dow Jones Index (DIA)
S&P 500 (SPY)
Nasdaq (QQQ)
Small Caps (IWM)
Is DIA the exception, or will SPY, QQQ, and IWM finally stop with the range-bound action?
Thank You!
Hopefully, markets are closer to being done throwing toddler tantrums than not. We’ll all have to wait and find out together.
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Disclaimer: Little Bird Trading and any of its associations may or may not, whether long or short, have a position in any instruments. Not investment advice. Provided for informational purposes only. Not a recommendation or endorsement. Not registered or licensed. Model portfolios are property of their respective owners. All data is sourced from publicly available information. No guarantee is being made or offered. Not responsible for financial loss or ruin.
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