KYG Report (Know Your Generals) | Perch Views #32
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This is the previous Perch Views article, from below the paywall line in Obituary: “Markets Are Expensive,” Age 15ish, Passed Away Of Boredom Today | Perch Views #31. Subscribers, please jump to the paywall line for the latest.
Obituary: “Markets Are Expensive,” Age 15ish, Passed Away Of Boredom Today
“Markets Are Expensive,” a persistent and frequently quoted market narrative, passed away quietly today of chronic boredom after a long and repetitive life. It was approximately 15 years old.
Born in the aftermath of the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis, the narrative first appeared as markets rebounded sharply from historic lows. What began as a cautious observation in the early stages of quantitative easing matured into a full-time personality trait by 2013–2014, when valuations rose, indexes broke highs, and pundits rediscovered long-term valuation charts.
Throughout adolescence, “Markets Are Expensive” demonstrated remarkable resilience. It weathered the 2017 multiple expansion, the 2018 volatility scare, the 2020 stimulus surge, the 2021 speculative fervor, and the 2023–2024 AI-fueled rally. Each time markets advanced, it returned refreshed, armed with CAPE ratios, margin debt charts, and selective historical comparisons to 1929 and 1999.
Despite repeated predictions of imminent market demise, “Markets Are Expensive” outlasted many short positions.
It is survived by Twitter perma-bears, newsletter doom forecasters, valuation traditionalists armed with 100-year regression charts, television pundits who prefer the phrase “this time is different” spoken ominously, and portfolio managers who have been waiting patiently in cash since 2014.
In lieu of flowers, mourners are encouraged to come up with a better excuse, as being early for 15 years is indistinguishable from being wrong.
Services will be held for those who have been repeating the same warning indefinitely; when the market finally pulls back, they will briefly enjoy the predictive reputation of Nostradamus before returning to regularly scheduled programming.
Wrap Up
There are only so many ways to say and show that, overall, the U.S. market continues to chop around and do absolutely nothing. So I hope you enjoyed this bit of fun instead.
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